2026 Brazilian presidential election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in an ultra-tight neck-and-neck race

Last updated 10/23/2026

As the second round of the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for Sunday, October 25, 2026, approaches, the country is sinking into extreme polarization where every opinion point counts. According to data published by the media outlet Metrópoles, the latest survey by the Vox Brasil institute, conducted from October 20 to 22 among 2,100 voters with a 95% confidence level, highlights a massive rejection of both finalists: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) records 47.1% absolute negative opinions ('Which candidate would you absolutely not vote for?'), closely followed by outgoing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who shows 44.8% rejection. The duel promises to be of unprecedented tension, with voting polls oscillating within the margin of error, like a Datafolha projection cited by Metrópoles placing Bolsonaro at 47% against 46% for Lula. This tiny margin has propelled the...

The Brazilian right-wing press (Veja) insists on the favorable dynamics and regional breakthroughs of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, while the dissident left-wing media Brasil 247 highlights an absolute mathematical tie (50/50 Datafolha) and exposes Lula's legal appeals to the TSE to prevent omission fraud.

This synthesis compares media coverage and flags blind spots, biases and conflicts of interest around this topic.

Read the full synthesis